Honduras: Remember That Coup?

You know. The one where agents of Roberto Micheletti seized duly elected President Manual Zelaya at gun point, put him on a plane in his pajamas, and flew him out of the country in June, 2009? Remember that? Remember how most countries, except the US, refused to accept the November, 2009 Honduran presidential election because the coup remained in power and Zelaya hadn't been restored to his office on election day? Remember how after the election the US Government told us that was no big deal, that it would recognize the new Porfirio Lobo government anyway, and we should all move on, there was nothing to see? Have we forgotten all of that? Have we forgotten that Manual Zelaya found refuge in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa in September, 2009, and that he's still there, still confined in the embassy?

Porfirio Lobo is supposed to be sworn in as President of Honduras on Wednesday, January 27. And today's news, which you probably wouldn't otherwise have heard about, is about the failure of democracy in Honduras:

Ousted Honduran president Manuel Zelaya has accepted a deal to go to the Dominican Republic this week when his four-year term ends and his predecessor is sworn in, his top political adviser said.

Zelaya said that he will return "when there is a process of reconciliation".

The ousted president said he can leave as an ordinary citizen on the 27th, leaving the Brazilian embassy where he has been in refuge since last September when he returned to Honduras....snip

Except for the United States, most of the other nations refuse to recognize the November elections as legitimate because the balloting took place under the regime of the puchistas, coup d'etat government.

Costa Rican president, Oscar Arias, ...said he would not attend the Lobo swearing in ceremony on the 27th.

source.

So it's over. The golpe goes unavenged. Democracy in this hemisphere is at its most perilous because a coup might not be fought. And, of course, the right wing in the US continues to scream that despite the US's complete betrayal of Manual Zelaya, the US is being too cozy with Hugo Chavez and events in Honduras somehow prove it.

If there was a "teachable moment" before or after the Honduras golpe de estado, about democracy in this hemisphere and the U.S.'s relationship to it, we've apparently forgotten what it might have been. 2010 in Honduras is looking a lot like 1910.

Honduras: Where's The Unity Government And The Truth Commission?

An election has been held in Honduras. The new, conservative, pro-golpista President will be sworn in in January. Manual Zelaya, the rightfully elected president remains stuck in asylum in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa. His term ends in January. Roberto Micheletti, the golpista usurper, remains ensconced in the presidency. The Honduran Congress and Supreme Court, two golpe supporting institutions, have to no one's surprise refused to re-instate Manual Zelaya in his elected presidency. The US, Costa Rica, and a few other countries have recognized the results of the election. Brazil, Venezuela, and Argentina won't. The OAS won't.

Given these apparently intractable circumstances and the desire to restore democracy in Honduras, The New York Times in an editorial has proposed what I consider to be a reasonable solution, one that both Honduras and the US should adopt.

Let's look carefully at the Times editorial.

First the Times correctly examines the present circumstances:

There is wide agreement that last week’s presidential election in Honduras, won by the conservative leader Porfirio Lobo, was clean and fair. But it doesn’t settle the country’s political crisis, nor the question of how the world should treat Honduras.

The military ousted President Manuel Zelaya in June. At the time of the vote, Mr. Zelaya was hiding in the Brazilian Embassy. He still is.

The Obama administration started off strong. It resisted the importunings of some Congressional Republicans who considered democracy far less important than Mr. Zelaya’s cozy ties to Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez.

Then Washington faltered. Its effort to broker a deal to return Mr. Zelaya to power, if only briefly, was filled with mixed messages (at one point the top American negotiator said Washington would accept the vote with or without Mr. Zelaya’s return). Over all, it betrayed a disturbing lack of diplomatic skill.

I would go further. I'd argue that Washington betrayed democracy in Honduras by brokering a deal that was flawed and pro-golpista from the outset, by sending mixed signals that were interpreted by the golpistas as tacit support, and by shifting position throughout the talks. The greatest US failing in my view was the delay in determining that there had been a coup, one that required the permanent cut off of all non-humanitarian aid. How, I would like to understand, does the arrest at gun point by the military of the elected president, his removal in his pajamas to an aircraft at gunpoint, and his being flown out of his country not qualify as a coup? And what has to be studied about these events to understand that, in fact, it's a coup? Footdragging on this point gave aid and comfort to the golpistas. So did the US's failures to denounce the suppression of civil liberties in the country by the golpe, including but not limited to warrantless arrests, kidnappings, shootings, the suppression of assemblies and the closing of media. These are events that need to be exposed and for which punishment must be imposed.

The Times recognizes, as so many others have, that ostracizing Honduras, a very poor country, is no solution: it will only hurt the poorest people in Honduras and will not strike any serious blow against the oligarchy. Honduras's poor people have already lost their elected president, one who professed support for them. It is doubly unjust because of the coup to make their lot more difficult.

The Times proposal?

Two aspects of the proposed deal, which have also been ignored so far, could help heal some of the wounds and restore some legitimacy. It called for the establishment of a unity government until the January inauguration and the creation of a truth commission to investigate events around the coup. The de facto government of Roberto Micheletti and other coup supporters must step down and be replaced by a unity government that includes high-level appointees from Mr. Zelaya. That unity government should create the truth commission. Civil liberties must be restored, including freedom of the press. And when the Lobo government takes office, it must clearly demonstrate its commitment to democracy.

In the meanwhile, the Times properly urges the US not to restore aid to Honduras and the OAS not to restore Honduras to membership.

These are in my view entirely proper steps. The Obama Administration should adopt them. Failure to do so lets democracy in Honduras slide away, and it undermines the stability of every elected democratic country in this hemisphere by stating that the US will countenance coups when they appear to be in the US's short term interest. That's a view that should have been discarded a century ago.

Honduras: Same As It Ever Was

Today there are presidential elections in Honduras. The US says that it doesn't matter that the golpista government of Roberto Micheletti is still in control despite international condemnation, that Manual Zelaya, the democratically elected president, is still stuck in asylum in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa, and that Brazil and Venezuela have announced that they will not recognize today's election results. Nor does it matter that the US originally denounced the coup, cut off non-military aid, and demanded the immediate reinstatement of Zelaya. All of that, amigos, is stuff you're supposed to forget about. Just forget it. Yeah, after today, democracy will be magically restored in Honduras via an election. And we're back to the same old same old. The power of El Norte continues, the maquiladoras make Fruit of the Loom for export, the bananas are back on the shelves, and the military puts its boot on the throat of anyone in Honduras who complains about the lack of democracy. It's 1910 all over again.

The AP reports:

A new Honduran president chosen Sunday faces the challenge of defending his legitimacy to the world and to his own people, who are bitterly divided by Central America's first coup in more than 20 years.

Porfirio Lobo and Elvin Santos, two prosperous businessmen from the political old guard [both of whom support the golpistas], are the front-runners. But their campaigns have been overshadowed by the debate over whether Hondurans should cast ballots at all in a vote largely shunned by international monitors.

Manuel Zelaya, the left-leaning president ousted in a June 28 coup, is urging a boycott, hoping overwhelming abstention will discredit the election. As polls opened Sunday, he vowed the United States would regret its decision to support the vote.

"Abstention will defeat the dictatorship," Zelaya told Radio Globo from the Brazilian Embassy, where he took refuge after sneaking back into the country from his forced exile Sept. 21. "The elections will be a failure. the United States will have to rectify its ambiguous position about the coup."

The US's "ambiguous position about the coup" isn't all that ambiguous. Especially in historical context. The US has said explicitly it will support the government elected in this election. Period. It just doesn't matter to the US government that is imposing democracy in Iraq, Afghanistan, and who knows where else, that there be actual democracy in its own hemisphere. That would require the restoration of Manual Zelaya and an election supervised internationally. Instead, we have an election supervised by the golpistas and their military. One can only wonder why US warships have not arrived off shore to preserve order and democracy.

The word from the streets isn't ambiguous at all:

"The best thing for this country is not to vote, to show the world, the United States, which stabbed us in the back and betrayed us," said Edwin Espinal, whose 24-year-old wife, Wendy, died of from asthma complications a day after soldiers hurled tear gas to disperse protesters demanding Zelaya's return.

There is, of course, the expected golpistas' repression. Narconews reports:

The free speech necessary to guarantee free elections is not the message being transmitted to the resistance front. Intimidation, torture, illegal detentions and in extreme cases assassinations are being carried out to prevent mass mobilizations on Election Day. The National Front Against the Coup D’état has encouraged all week a ‘popular curfew’ on Election Day to prevent clashes with the opposition. The Center for the Investigation and Promotion of Human Rights in Honduras (CIPRODEH), has documented aggression directly from the police and the military towards nearly all human rights groups working in Honduras.

And now, hypnotically, the promise that the US under Obama would have a new relationship with Latin America, one in which democracy would be fostered and coups would be discouraged, one in which the oligarchies would not be permitted to exploit and repress poor people, one in which popular leaders could be elected even if they disagreed with El Norte and not be the immediate objects of golpes de estado, those promises will be forgotten. They will be erased from your memories. And life as we knew it in 1910 will resume.

Honduras: A Sign That The Coup Has Won

I know, I know. I'm hypersensitive, I've lost my sense of humor, I'm out of touch with common reality. I'm making mountains out of mole hills. And I sound angry.

All of that about me might be so, but today's Washington Post article about Honduras seems to me to be a sign that the coup has won, as far as the Trad Media are concerned, and that deserves at least brief mention here. Put another way, I don't think you're going to read more about Honduras in the Trad Media until the end of November when the presidential election is held there.

The point of the article in the Washington Post, if I may distill it for you, is that in Banana Republics, roughly defined as all countries in Central America, including Honduras, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua, where Spanish is spoken, people would rather talk about futbol than politics. And that's how it is, the article tells us. So even if politics at the moment means living with the jackbooted foot of the oligarchy and its US armed military standing truculently on your neck, you still smile and you talk instead about futbol. As bad as things might be in Honduras, as undemocratic and repressive as things might be, as poor as the people are, as oppressive as the golpe de estado is, well, things just can't be all that bad. And why so? Because just like in normal circumstances, Hondurans can still be happy about futbol. Let's let them continue to be happy.

Bring on the stereotypes. Bring on old clips of the Frito Bandito. Bring on anecdotes of laziness. Bring on the claim that the people of Honduras are happy and that they don't really care that their democratic government has been overthrown by a coup d'etat. After all, isn't their national team going to the World Cup?

This is offensive. Especially because the coup continues in full force. And shows no signs of ending. And because nobody, that's right, nobody has a clue about how to end the coup.

On October 14, Honduras made the World Cup finals in South Africa, when its team beat El Salvador and the US beat Costa Rica. This is Honduras's first World Cup finals since 1982, so it's a big deal if you care about futbol. And, of course, the golpistas, who are in charge of the country and its military, have tried to use this event to their advantage, to capitalize on it. They even declared a national holiday.

A bus carrying the triumphant team to visit Honduras' patron saint at Tegucigalpa's cathedral after the win made an abrupt detour to the presidential palace where [interim president and chief golpista Roberto] Micheletti has set up his government. They were paraded on a state-controlled television channel and Micheletti declared a national holiday.

"We had no idea the bus was going to the presidential palace, we thought it was headed to the church," [midfielder Elvis] Turcios said.

The head of the national team selection committee, Jose Ferrari, said he did not make the decision to take the players to Micheletti but that it was practical not political because crowds overwhelmed the church waiting for their arrival.

But Ferrari is the owner of the largest media outlets in Honduras and a Micheletti-backer, and some suspect it was a deliberate political play.

"Some suspect?" Yeah, that would be me. I suspect it. I consider the non-denial from Ferrari utterly laughable, especially because the TV cameras were at the palace waiting for the event and the videos were then run on whose TV station?

Meanwhile, the mother of the team's captain made an opposing gesture of support for the rightfully elected, deposed president Manual Zelaya, who remains in asylum in the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa:

"All of the team's directors are part of the coup, they wanted to use it for their own benefit," said Flor Guevara, a devout Zelaya supporter and the mother of team captain Amado.

Guevara asked her son to autograph a team shirt for Zelaya, which made it past soldiers into the embassy where the toppled leader held it up for photos. And Zelaya's team is keen to portray players as political as well as sporting heroes.

"I know there are players resisting the coup ... many couldn't speak out," his daughter told local newspapers.

Guevara said her gift to Zelaya was personal and not meant to reflect the political views of her son.

All of this was dutifully reported by the Washington Post.

What conclusion do I draw from this reportage? I think the Trad Media in the US are now finished with that Banana Republic Honduras and its 21st century coup. I think that they now realize that the problem of restoring democracy is intractable, that the golpistas are utterly intransigent, and that Manual Zelaya, the rightfully elected president, has no discernible route to being reinstated in his presidency. More important, none of the governments and international organizations who made Zelaya's reinstatement the first priority in restoring democracy to Honduras has a clue of how to accomplish this first step. So, faced with a standoff, the Trad Media are done. Finished. There's nothing else for them to say. Except that things aren't so bad in Honduras because there's futbol. And the World Cup.

The story is now going to die, and in November we'll be told that the election has been held, that there's a new, democratically elected president, who was not put in place by the coup, and that the election was fair enough even though it was conducted by the golpistas during their coup. And eventually, after that election, the controversy will fade in our memory, and the US, and everybody else, will recognize the elected president of Honduras. And we'll all go on. After all, it's just a Banana Republic, and it doesn't really matter to us.

Honduras: The Golpistas Raise Their Middle Finger

The news of an impending resolution to Honduras's coup was hopeful, but apparently too good to be true. Today it's clear that nothing has been decided, that rightful, democratically elected President Manual Zelaya is still stuck in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa, and that the negotiations to resolve the crises are now totally dead. This should not be a big surprise to anyone.

The New York Times reports:

Ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya pulled out of talks with the country's post-coup de facto leaders on Friday, throwing efforts to resolve a months-long political crisis back to square one.

Zelaya pulled his representatives out of meetings with envoys of de facto leader Roberto Micheletti that were the latest in a series of attempts to resolve the political deadlock sparked by a June 28 military coup.

"As of now we see this phase as finished," Zelaya envoy Mayra Mejia said shortly after midnight (7 a.m. British time) at the hotel where both sides have been negotiating for three weeks.

All attempts to reach a deal have snagged over whether Zelaya can return to power for the last few months of his term, which ends in January.

"Post-coup de facto leaders" is an interesting turn of phrase. I prefer "golpistas." Or if you prefer, "leaders of the coup d'etat." But the bottom line is that no matter what you call Roberto Micheletti and his friends in the oligarchy, their coup continues despite virtually universal condemnation. And it only has to continue, as far as the golpistas are concerned, until November 29, 2009, the present date for elections of a new president. That date is right around the corner. The golpistas have no intention, none whatsoever of restoring Manual Zelaya to his rightful presidency. That is the one, single thing they will not permit. And, unfortunately, that's the one single step the rest of the world believes is an essential first step to end the crisis.

This is what is called a deadlock.

The rest of the world may insist on restoration of Manual Zelaya to the presidency as an initial step, and it may insist as well that the coup's running the national election in November undermines the legitimacy of the "democratic election." But the golpistas don't see it that way. At all. To them, surviving all the diplomatic initiatives and the sternly worded verbal condemnations and the impounding of funds until there's an election is the goal. They'll happily argue about the legitimacy of the election after its been held. And nothing is going to budge them from their present stranglehold on Honduras's government or move them to restore Manual Zelaya to the presidency.

The golpistas would rather clamp down on the demonstrators than move their position toward a possible resolution. This is what one should expect of them. The burden of the unrest, and especially the present damage to the Honduras economy fall on the poorest people in Honduras. These are not the golpistas. They are quite powerless to resist the military government and the US equipped and trained army.

And what of the US and it's recently announced "better relations" with Latin America?

The deadlock in Honduras is proving a challenge for U.S. President Barack Obama after he vowed better relations with Latin America. Washington suspended the visas of more figures in the de facto government this week to pressure a settlement.

"The two sides need to seal this deal now. Time is running out," U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said on Friday. "We have not given up on a deal yet ... We are focussed on these guys sitting down and agreeing," he said.

This is nice. There is no deal to seal. There is no agreement. And now there are no talks. Put another way, US insistence on an agreement is and continues to be an utter non starter. Similarly, negotiations brokered by Oscar Arias. Similarly, the impounding of non-essential US aid to Honduras. The golpistas have raised their middle finger and most observers are making believe it's to tell which way the wind is blowing.

Honduras: Finally Talking About Talking

Today is Sunday. Democratically elected, legal President Manual Zelaya of Honduras remains in sanctuary in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa. And the military golpistas remain in control of the Government. But today there is the tentative news of a beginning of negotiations finally to end the coup. The end of the crisis and the restoration of normalcy can't come soon enough for the people of Honduras.

AP reports that talks between the two sides have actually begun:

Interim President Roberto Micheletti told reporters that a dialogue is "beginning" between his supporters and those of President Manuel Zelaya...

"We are having talks with different sectors officially, with people from Mr. Zelaya's side and with others," Micheletti said Friday outside the presidential palace, hours after meeting with a delegation of four Republican members of the U.S. Congress.

Jim DeMint (Golpista S.C.) is spinning the possible start of talks as if it were the result of his controversial visit to Micheletti in Tegucigalpa.

And BBC is reporting that

Aides to Manuel Zelaya and interim President Roberto Micheletti will reportedly meet next week.

The talks would precede a visit by the Organisation of American States aimed at brokering a deal, the OAS says.

There have been unsuccessful efforts to have talks since the June coup. Costa Rican President Oscar Arias was to mediate them. The two sides never met; the proposed mediation collapsed.

In the meanwhile, the decree suspending civil liberties remains in effect, although Micheletti says it will be lifted "within days." Zelaya supporters remain skeptical about this. And Radio Globo is still off the air, the golpistas having seized its transmitters, though it is still broadcasting via the Internet.

There remain many reasons to end the coup quickly. First, the disruption of Honduras's economy has been disastrous. Poor people in Honduras have been unable to work because of curfews. And businesses generally have been disrupted. The impact of the curfew and the inability to work has been felt most by poor people, who have to work daily to feed themselves.

Second, the Presidential Election in Honduras is set for November 29. And the OAS and others, including the USM, have made it clear that the results of the election will not be accepted if the coup remains in power on the date of the election.

Third, the World Cup qualifying match between Honduras and the United States is scheduled for San Pedro Sula on October 10. There was a question whether FIFA, futbol's governing body, would permit the game to be played amid civil unrest in Honduras, but the game is not going to be moved unless the situation deteriorates. Moving the game will enrage both sides of the controversy in Honduras.

Both sides are finally talking about talking. There is little the US, the OAS, the UN, Honduras's neighbors can do that they have not already done to speed the removal of the golpistas and the restoration of Zelaya to the presidency. The terms under which this will be carried out are going to be important, and they'll be a measure of the degree to which pro-democracy nations stick to their expressed demands that the coup must leave and that Zelaya must be restored.

Honduras: A Stand Off

You will recall that the legitimate president of Honduras Manual Zelaya evaded the golpistas who wanted to arrest him and secretly returned to Honduras, where he found refuge in the Brazilian embassy. First, there was this essay; then this. Zelaya's still there. And this is an update on the present stand off.

Usurper and golpista Roberto Micheletti has apparently, international law be damned, given the Brazilians an ultimatum. According to CNN:

Honduras is accusing Brazil's government of instigating an insurrection within its borders, and gave the Brazilian Embassy 10 days to decide the status of ousted Honduran President Jose Manuel Zelaya, who has taken refuge there.

"Since the clandestine arrival to Honduras by ex-president Zelaya, the Brazil embassy has been used to instigate violence and insurrection against the Honduran people and the constitutional government," the secretary of foreign affairs for Honduras' de facto government said in a statement late Saturday night.

The statement said Honduras would be forced to take measures against Brazil if Brazil did not define its position on Zelaya. It did not specify what those measures would be.

"No country is able to tolerate that a foreign embassy is used as a command base to generate violence and break tranquility like Mr. Zelaya has been doing in our country since his arrival," the statement said.

It's not clear what the golpistas mean when they give ten days "to decide" Zelaya's fate." Does that mean to turn him over to the golpistas? To render him for arrest? To remove him from the country? It's a threat, but the "or else" is clear, but the action demanded is opaque.

Brazil has now responded to the golpistas with a raised middle digit:

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Sunday his nation would not comply with a demand from Honduras' de facto government to decide the status of ousted President Manuel Zelaya in 10 days.

Lula, speaking to reporters during a summit in Venezuela, said international law protects Brazil's embassy, where Zelaya has been staying since returning to Honduras earlier this month. He demanded an apology from Honduras' de facto leader, Roberto Micheletti.

These threatening exchanges come on the heals of charges by Zelaya that the Golpistas have attacked the Brazilian embassy with "neurotoxins:"

Ousted Honduran President Jose Manuel Zelaya said he and supporters holed up at the Brazilian Embassy were victims of a "neurotoxic" gas attack Friday morning that caused many people to have nose bleeds and breathing difficulties.

An official with Brazil's Foreign Ministry told CNN there was some type of gas used in the area but could not confirm it was a nerve agent. Some embassy employees felt minor symptoms, said the official, who did not want his name used because that is foreign ministry protocol.

The charge of a gas attack was leveled after the United Nations Security Council "condemn[ed] acts of intimidation against the Brazilian Embassy and call[ed] upon the de facto government of Honduras to cease harassing the Brazilian Embassy." This admonition to the golpe de estado came after the golpistas violated the sovereignty of the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa, where Zelaya had found refuge:

The Brazilian foreign minister told the Security Council on Friday that "since the day it has sheltered President Zelaya at its premises, the Brazilian Embassy has been virtually under siege."

"It has been submitted to acts of harassment and intimidation by the de facto authorities," the minister said. "Electricity, water supply and phone connections were cut off. Cell phone communications were blocked or interfered with. Disruptive sound equipment was installed in front of the embassy."

"Access to food was severely restricted. The circulation of official vehicles of the Brazilian Embassy was curtailed," the foreign minister added. "The charged affairs of Brazil has been in practice prevented from moving from the Chancellery to the Residence, since the police informed that anyone who would leave the embassy premises would not be allowed back."

Following the Security Council action, US Ambassador Susan Rice stated:

"We condemn acts of intimidation against the Brazilian embassy and call upon the de facto government of Honduras to cease harassing the Brazilian embassy.”

That's unequivocal, and clear enough. But today there appears to be little or no movement toward restoring Manual Zelaya to the presidency of Honduras, or toward removing the golpistas from power. The stand off continues.

Honduras: The Crisis Continues

Manual Zelaya In The Brazilian Embassy, Tegucigalpa

The two sides aren't talking to each other in Honduras, even though they are just miles from each other. The golpistas use the military to repress the people on the streets and to continue the curfews. The real president of Honduras has asylum in the Brazilian embassy.

Join me in Tegucigalpa.

The New York Times reports:

the two men who claim to be the president of Honduras passed another day without meeting on Wednesday as residents of this capital city used a break in a curfew to store up supplies and hunker down for what could be an extended political standoff.

“We need to sit down face to face,” Manuel Zelaya, the deposed leader, said in a telephone interview from the Brazilian Embassy, where he has been holed up since slipping back into the country from exile on Monday. He complained of harassment of his supporters by the security forces, a dwindling food supply inside the compound where he and ever fewer backers are staying and the acrid aroma of tear gas from earlier clashes outside.

But the government did restore water, electricity and telephone service to the building, which it had cut off on Tuesday.

Conditions in Tegucigalpa today evidence continuing strife as demonstrators defy the curfew and confront the military, which is trying to push supporters of Zelaya off of the streets:

The streets, littered with rubble and tear gas canisters, summed up the acrimony. Angry demonstrators had uprooted trees, looted stores and burned tires on Tuesday to protest the de facto government’s refusal to reinstate Mr. Zelaya. Security forces in riot gear had fired tear gas to move protesters away from the embassy.

The aggressive tactics of the police and soldiers drew strong condemnation, especially the firing of tear gas on Monday at the headquarters of a Honduran human rights organization. A large group of people were inside, filing complaints about police and army abuses at the time, according to Amnesty International.

On Wednesday, the two sides continued to test each other. At noon, as Zelaya supporters were massing, a police spokesman announced that the government had just banned meetings of more than 20 people.

But the protest, thousands strong, went on.

A line of riot police officers, backed by water cannon, tried to hold a line a few blocks from the embassy. But the protest organizers persuaded the police to move back as the demonstrators moved forward, chanting, “Yes, we did,” in a reference to Mr. Zelaya’s return.

Put simply, there is an uneasy, dangerous tension in Honduras, and there is no significant progress toward restoring Manual Zelaya to the presidency. Although both sides say they want to talk, there have been no talks. Although Costa Rican president Arias has offered to continue to mediate the crisis, there is no mediation.

It will not do to hold elections for the next presidential term, which begins in January, if the golpistas continue to hold the government. And so the deadlock continues.

Honduras: Talks Instead Of Further Confrontations

Mediation between the golpistas and Manual Zelaya will take place in Costa Rica. The mediator will be Oscar Arias. Zelaya will not attempt to return to Honduras and will participate in talks.

The political standoff in Honduras between deposed President Manuel Zelaya and the regime that ousted him will be mediated by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias in an arrangement the U.S. helped to broker.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced the mediator’s role for Arias today after meeting with Zelaya in Washington, where the exiled leader came to rally support for his return to office. Zelaya agreed to join the talks, to be held in Costa Rica, rather than try to go back to Honduras. The de facto government also agreed, she said.

“It is a better route for him to follow at this time than to attempt to return in the face of the implacable opposition of the de facto regime,” Clinton said. “Instead of another confrontation that might result in loss of life, let’s try the dialogue process and see where that leads.”

The negotiations may provide an avenue for both sides to back away from a confrontation that has triggered fatal clashes between Zelaya’s supporters and the military. As tensions mounted following the military’s overthrow of Zelaya on June 28, de facto President Roberto Micheletti pledged to arrest him if he returns. Meanwhile, Zelaya has won backing from the U.S., Europe and every nation in Latin America.

source.

Will this work to bring democracy to Honduras? Will this restore Zelaya to the presidency?

Many questions. Few answers.

Honduras: And Now What?

President Zelaya is in El Salvador. The golpistas are talking to Washington and OAS. One person is confirmed dead after the airport confrontation. Today is a day for diplomacy.

If diplomacy fails to gain traction, we can expect a re-do of yesterday's confrontation, probably not at the same airport.

The best analysis of where we are today? Al Giordano.

Honduras: The Oligarchy Strikes Back

A major confrontation approaches. Or does it? The New York Times breathlessly reports the drama in the air:

Honduras' exiled president took off for home in a Venezuelan jet in a high-stakes attempt to return to power, even as the interim government told its military to turn away the plane.

Zelaya won wide international support after his ouster a week ago by the military, but the only prominent escort aboard his plane was the U.N. General Assembly president after Latin American leaders backed out, citing security concerns. Honduras' civil aviation director said Zelaya's plane was being redirected to El Salvador.

Several other planes carrying Latin American presidents, the secretary-general of the Organization of American States and journalists were leaving Washington separately, trailing Zelaya to see what happens in the skies over Honduras before deciding where to land.

Presumably, the Latin American presidents won't land in Honduras if Zelaya's plane is diverted to San Salvador.

And, of course, there's a corresponding drama on the ground:

Thousands of protesters descended on the airport in the Honduran capital in anticipation of the showdown. Police helicopters hovered overhead. Commercial flights were canceled, and outside the airport about 200 soldiers with riot shields formed a line in front of the protesters.

''The government of President (Roberto) Micheletti has ordered the armed forces and the police not to allow the entrance of any plane bringing the former leader,'' the foreign minister of the interim government, Enrique Ortez, told The Associated Press on Sunday.

So much for the golpista's threat that Manual Zelaya, the deposed president, would be arrested if he set foot on Hondruan soil. Evidently, the golpistas have decided that they have a tight hold on the country, and they fear the consequences of attempting to arrest Zelaya on Honduran soil. Their tactic is simple: the golpistas control the air force and the airport. They will keep Zelaya from returning, continue his forced exile. The demonstrators will see nothing.

Nonetheless, thousands of demonstrators are making their way to the airport:

Zelaya has urged loyalists to support his arrival in Honduras in a peaceful show of force.

''We are going to show up at the Honduras International Airport in Tegucigalpa ... and on Sunday we will be in Tegucigalpa,'' Zelaya said Saturday in the taped statement carried on the Web sites of the Telesur and Cubadebate media outlets. ''Practice what I have always preached, which is nonviolence.''

Zelaya supporters said they got the message as they converged on the airport.

''We have no pistols or arms, just our principles,'' organizer Rafael Alegria said. ''We have the legitimate right to fight for the defense of democracy and to restore President Zelaya.''

And so, we wait. And we watch. The odds, I think, are that Manual Zelaya's plane will be turned away from Honduras, that the golpistas will continue to thumb their noses at the OAS and the rest of the world, and that the question of appropriate sanctions, including the removal of ambassadors and the permanent cutting off of aid, will be the next topic of discussion.

The coup has to go. Democracy has to be restored in Honduras. I'm waiting to see exactly how committed the US and Canada are to those propositions.

Honduras: Fuera golpistas!

An estimated 20,000 protest the coup

Well, well, well. The 3-day waiting period is over. And guess what? Nothing's changed, not really. The coup remains defiantly in power, the coup is withdrawing from OAS, Manual Zelaya is still in Costa Rica, his ministers are still in hiding in Honduras, the press is still embargoed. And demonstrations by both sides continue. For now, it's apparently a standoff. Diplomacy seems not to have made a change; next is economic sanctions.

The demonstrations in support of democracy have grown. El Tiempo reports:

El verdadero pueblo está en las calles apoyando al presidente en el exilio, Manuel Zelaya Rosales, aseguraron ayer más de 20.000 manifestantes que protestaron por la restitución del mandatario.

La marcha, una de las más numerosas que los simpatizantes de Zelaya Rosales han efectuado desde el domingo pasado, día en que se perpetró el golpe de Estado en su contra, paralizó en un principio el Bulevar Juan Pablo II desde horas de la mañana....

Seguidores de Zelaya Rosales aseguraron que ellos son la voz del pueblo.
a multitudinaria manifestación en apoyo a Manuel Zelaya compitió paralelamente con la concentración de quienes están del lado del actual gobierno, sin embargo, ambas estuvieron muy parejas en cuanto a la cantidad de participantes.

There were, of course, large pro-golpista demonstrations as well.

The New York Times is glum:

Honduras' refusal to restore ousted President Manuel Zelaya despite an appeal by the top envoy for the Americas has put the impoverished nation on a collision course with the world community that could lead to its isolation.

Honduras said it would no longer recognize the Organization of American States charter, claiming the diplomatic body attempted to impose ''unilateral and indignant resolutions'' on the new government, which took power a week ago in a military-backed coup and forced Zelaya into exile.

OAS chief Jose Miguel Insulza had demanded Zelaya be restored to office, and on Saturday the organization was to discuss suspending the Central American nation's membership. But Honduras' interim president, Roberto Micheletti, said ''the OAS is a political organization, not a court, and it can't judge us,'' according to a note to Insulza read on Honduras' television Friday night.

The move means Honduras, one of the poorest countries in the Americas, will leave the OAS and will not face sanctions by the organization, though it would not prevent other groups and countries from suspending aid and loans.

Nations around the world have promised to shun Micheletti. Neighboring countries have imposed trade blockades, the United States has halted joint military operations and European Union ambassadors have abandoned the Honduran capital. The World Bank already has suspended $200 million in financing, and the Inter-American Development Bank has put $450 million on hold.

Unfortunately, it's unclear whether the golpistas care about any of this. It depends on whom the burden from the loss will fall. If the burden falls primarily and disproportionately on Honduras's poor and not on the oligarchy, the sanctions will matter little to the coup. Only if the sanctions seriously impact the oligarchy, will they be an impetus to the restoration of democracy. It's unclear to me which of these is the case.

And the US? Will it withdraw its ambassador? Will it permanently cut off all non-humanitarian aid? Apparently this is in the works.

The U.S. Embassy issued a statement Friday expressing ''deep concern over restrictions imposed on certain fundamental rights'' by Micheletti's government, including a curfew and ''reports of intimidation and censorship against certain individuals and media outlets.''

Military cooperation has already been suspended. And so was US Aid last week. Here's the official description:

The State Department said Thursday it has put much of the U.S. aid program to Honduras on hold pending a legal determination as to whether the overthrow of elected President Manuel Zelaya last Sunday requires an aid cut-off. The United States meanwhile is cautioning Mr. Zelaya against an early attempt to return home.

The State Department's legal team will probably determine that the overthrow of President Zelaya does fit the definition of a military coup, thus mandating a U.S. aid cut-off.

In the meantime, State Department Spokesman Ian Kelly said Thursday the Obama administration has effectively frozen those parts of the U.S. aid program - mainly military and non-humanitarian assistance - that would be covered by an aid cut-off.

Put simply, the money is on hold until a determination is made.

And in the meanwhile, it's not at all clear what can be done to hasten the restoration of democracy in Honduras.

For my part, I support the restoration of democracy in Honduras, and I oppose the golpe de estado. I oppose the arguments made by coup apologists and from the oligarchy diaspora.

I say as loudly as I can, "Fuera golpistas!"

Honduras: One Day Left

With one day left before OAS imposes sanctions on the coup, José Miguel Insulza, secretary general of the Organization of American States, is in Honduras today delivering the OAS's message that Manual Zelaya must be reinstated as president. If he's not reinstated, presumably by tomorrow, Honduras will be expelled from the OAS and various other sanctions may be imposed. The US is studying whether what happened in Honduras fits the legal definition of a "coup." If it does, cutting off all aid to Honduras is statutorily required.

According to the New York Times, Insulza isn't in Honduras to negotiate. He's just there to deliver the ultimatum in person:

O.A.S. officials acknowledged that he would talk to members of Congress and the Supreme Court, both of which played a part in the president’s removal. But Mr. Insulza insisted that he “was not going to Honduras to negotiate.” Instead, he said, he was going to urge the new government to relent and reinstate the ousted president, Manuel Zelaya, before the O.A.S. made good on its threat to suspend Honduras from its ranks.

Meanwhile, some diplomats say that Zelaya's role in his arrest and deportation to Costa Rica has to be acknowledged:

“The coup was certainly an affront to the region, but there is a context in which these events happened,” said Peter Kent, Canada’s minister of foreign affairs, noting that Mr. Zelaya was a highly polarizing figure who clashed with the Supreme Court, Congress and army. “There has to be an appreciation of the events that led up to the coup."

It is unclear how this "appreciation" fits into a resolution of the problem. Perhaps it means that the golpistas should be given amnesty.

In response to the threat of sanctions and a unified OAS position on the coup, one which the US is supporting and following, Micheletti and the golpistas have mentioned moving the presidential election forward as a way to resolve the crisis. That idea appears to have gained little traction.

You'll also notice that if the coup and the nation's reaction to it was on the front page of the Trad Media^TM, it wasn't there for long. It's not there today. A reason, apart from US inattention to events in this hemisphere, might be the degree to which the coup has effectively suppressed information about diplomacy and demonstrations in Honduras:

Many Hondurans have a limited view of the crisis since the interim government has interrupted television transmissions and closed some stations loyal to Mr. Zelaya since his ouster.

Local journalists have claimed harassment, and the Committee to Protect Journalists, citing the army’s brief detention of seven international journalists on Monday, has asked the authorities to allow all media “to report freely and without fear of reprisal.”

Mr. Micheletti, in a news briefing on Wednesday, said media restrictions were put in place to control public order because some organizations were urging Mr. Zelaya’s backers “to go and do what they did, breaking windows, hitting people, assaulting.”

But Esdras Amado López, the owner of a television station, Channel 36, called the government hypocritical: “This is against the Constitution that the new government says it is protecting. I have a license. I have a right to inform the people. This is an unconstitutional order.”

WSJ reports that the coup government has actually taken control of some media in the country.

Meanwhile, the curfew and withdrawal of rights continues in Honduras, as does what appears to be a continuing press embargo. There is one day to the deadline.

Honduras: Three Days To Glare At The Opposition

A Woman Injured Monday In An Anti-Coup Demonstration

The Thursday confrontation between deposed Honduran president Manual Zelaya and the Roberto Micheletti and his Honduran military coup has been delayed until Saturday.

CNN reports:

Ousted Honduran President Jose Manuel Zelaya said Wednesday he will not return to his home country until at least Saturday, after a three-day international deadline to reinstate him.

Zelaya had said earlier he would return to Honduras on Thursday. Provisional Honduran President Roberto Micheletti said Tuesday that Zelaya would be arrested on multiple charges if he returns.

The Organization of American States passed a resolution early Wednesday saying that Zelaya should be returned to power within 72 hours. The United Nations unanimously passed a similar resolution Tuesday afternoon.

The refusal to reinstate Zelaya, according to the OAS, will cause it to suspend Honduras's OAS membership. Many OAS members have already withdrawn their ambassadors and cut off relations with the Micheletti coup government. The US has had nice words to support democracy, but has taken little if any action to restore Zelaya.

Unfortunately, and despite virtually universal condemnation, Micheletti continues to talk tough. In an interview with AP he continued his bravado and his defiance:

A defiant Roberto Micheletti said in an interview with The Associated Press late Tuesday that "no one can make me resign," defying the United Nations, the OAS, the Obama administration and other leaders that have condemned the military coup that overthrew President Manuel Zelaya....snip

[The OAS's three day] period for negotiation prompted Zelaya to announce he was putting off his plans to return home on Thursday until the weekend.

Micheletti vowed Zelaya would be arrested if he returns, even though the presidents of Argentina and Ecuador have signed on to accompany him along with the heads of the Organization of American States and the U.N. General Assembly.

Zelaya "has already committed crimes against the constitution and the law," said Micheletti, a member of Zelaya's Liberal Party who was named interim leader by Congress following the coup. "He can no longer return to the presidency of the republic unless a president from another Latin American country comes and imposes him using guns."

Micheletti, according to AP,

said he would not resign no matter how intense the international pressure becomes. He insisted Honduras would be ready to defend itself against any invasion.

...snip "No one can make me resign if I do not violate the laws of the country," Micheletti said. "If there is any invasion against our country, 7.5 million Hondurans will be ready to defend our territory and our laws and our homeland and our government."

Put another way, the confrontation is delayed. It is not diffused.

And the US government? What about its role in restoring democracy to Honduras? According to the New York Times,

[T]here were calls by Venezuela and Nicaragua for the United States to impose tough economic sanctions.

The United States, which provides millions of dollars in aid to Honduras and maintains a military base there, is the only country in the region that has not withdrawn its ambassador from Honduras. France and Spain have also recalled their ambassadors.

“There is a lot of concern about hurting the people of Honduras any more than they have already been hurt,” said a senior administration official, referring to American reluctance impose sanctions. “There’s enough trouble and poverty in Honduras already.”

Does this mean that despite President Obama's words on Monday that, "We stand on the side of democracy, sovereignty and self-determination," the US will not take decisive action to restore democracy in Honduras? That it will stand by, that it will permit the coup to prevail?

This would be a good time to communicate with the White House to urge that it join the other nations in this hemisphere and back up its nice words with actions designed to restore democracy in Honduras. Any other course buttresses the coup and undermines US claims that it supports democracy throughout the hemisphere.

Honduras: A Face Off On Thursday

Honduran police clash with pro-democracy demonstrators.

The military coup that deposed Honduran President Manual Zelaya has been denounced by almost everyone except the Honduran military. President Obama said, "We stand on the side of democracy, sovereignty and self-determination." The OAS has condemned the coup. ALBA has condemned the coup. The UN General Assembly has condemned the coup. Central American nations have sealed their borders with Honduras. Most (except El Salvador) have also withdrawn their ambassadors. Roads are blocked in the country.

Police and soldiers clashed with pro-Zelaya protesters in the capital on Monday, and about 5,000 anti-Zelaya demonstrators gathered at a main plaza in Tegucigalpa on Tuesday to celebrate his ouster.

What is to happen next appears to be a confrontation, a face-off between the deposed President and the military coup that arrested and deported him.

Earlier today it was reported that President Zelaya will return to Honduras on Thursday:

Ousted Honduran President Manual Zelaya has announced that he will return to Honduras on Thursday. "I'm going to finish my four-year term, whether or not you coup leaders are in agreement," he stated.

Zelaya will return to Honduras accompanied by the Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), José Miguel Insulza, and a commission of Latin American presidents. The Argentine government has announced that its President Cristina Fernandez will accompany Zelaya to Honduras as part of the presidential commission. In a press conference following his speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Zelaya stated that Ecuadoran President Rafael Correa will also accompany him.

Colinas, Santa Barbara, Mayor Amable de Jesus Hernandez told TeleSUR that citizen caravans were being organized to travel from his region to the capital of Tegucigalpa on Thursday to receive President Zelaya.

At first, the return of the deposed president and other officials wasn't supposed to be a direct confrontation with the military forces that arrested and forcibly deported him to Costa Rica:

Reports in Honduran and international press that interim President Roberto Micheletti says that "if Zelaya sets foot on Honduran soil he will be arrested" are overblown, thanks in large part to a provocative headline in that regard published by Colombia's Radio Caracol. Yes, Micheletti has stated that Honduran courts have issued arrest warrants against Zelaya, but thus far he has not definitively stated that his forces will attempt to arrest Zelaya...

The [Radio Caracol] interviewer asked Micheletti how he planned to respond in the event that Zelaya ... returned on Thursday. Micheletti responded: "My country's courts have arrest warrants against him for breaking the law." He then went on to explain his case for why Zelaya had broken the law when he attempted to carry out a public opinion poll on forming a new constitutional convention to draft a new constitution. Micheletti never told Radio Caracol that his government planned to act on the aforementioned arrest warrants.

However, by later in the day, Micheletti wasn't so circumspect. In an interview with The Washington Post, Micheletti made an overt, explicit threat to arrest Zelaya:

"If he comes back to our country, he would have to face our tribunals and our trials and our laws," Micheletti said in an interview with The Washington Post late Monday night at his residence in the hills overlooking the capital. "He would be sent to jail. For sure, he would go to prison." ...snip

The new Honduran president said he did not see any way to negotiate with the Obama administration and international diplomats seeking a return of Zelaya to power because Micheletti insisted that Zelaya was guilty of crimes against the country.

"No, no compromise, because if he tries to come back or anyone tries to bring him back, he will be arrested," Micheletti said.

That's clear enough. Micheletti has unequivocally stating that Zelaya will be arrested. And so on Thursday, when Zelaya and his supporters return to Honduras, there will be a confrontation, a face off in Tegucigalpa. On one side, the coup's president, Roberto Micheletti, the parts of the Honduran military that support him, his citizen supporters from the upper classes; on the other, Manual Zelaya, the international leaders who support his claim for the restoration of democracy in Honduras, the masses of people in the Hemisphere's second poorest country.

I know which side I'm on. I know what side I hope you're on.

I want to be in solidarity with the restoration of democracy and the overturning of this military coup.

It's not clear what we can do to help restore Democracy in Honduras. Again, as individuals it's only the small things we can do. We can watch the news from Honduras, we can spread this story, we can ask our Traditional Media^TM to report it (it's not on the front page of the New York Times or CNN or MSNBC as I write this), and we can discuss among ourselves how we can eventually be of actual help to our brothers and sisters and their struggle in Honduras.

I know this isn't much. But it's only right that we support this struggle for democracy and oppose the military coup. We supported democracy in Iran, halfway around the world. We should be supporting democracy at least as strongly in our own backyard.