Ground Hog Day 2012: Revise That Equation

I have the distinct impression that I've written this post before. Several times. You may feel that you've read it before. Over and over again. It's only 8 am ET here, but already (thank you Internet) the results and prognostications are in:


Date Prediction Groundhog Location
2012 Early spring[ Wiarton Willie Wiarton, Ontario
2012 Early spring[23] General Beauregard Lee Lilburn, Georgia
2012 6 more weeks of winter[24] Malverne Mel Malverne, New York
2012 Early spring[25] Holtsville Hal Holtsville, New York
2012 Early spring[26] Buckeye Chuck Marion, Ohio
2012 Early spring[27] Staten Island Chuck Staten Island (New York City)
2012 Early spring[28] Shubenacadie Sam Shubenacadie, Nova Scotia
2012 6 more weeks of winter Punxsutawney Phil Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania

I knew the "rule": if the GH sees its shadow, there are 6 weeks more of winter. I thought incorrectly that if the GH didn't see its shadow, there are 6 more weeks of winter anyway. But I have now been disabused of this idea: if the GH does NOT see its shadow, the equation tells us "Spring will be early". How early? Nobody says. So the current, traditional theorem is this:

f(GH) = sees shadow = 6 more weeks of Winter
f(GH) =does not see shadow = early Spring

The Wiki tells us about these predictions:

Groundhog Day proponents state that the rodents' forecasts are accurate 75% to 90% of the time. A Canadian study for 13 cities in the past 30 to 40 years puts the success rate level at 37%. Also, the National Climatic Data Center reportedly has stated that the overall prediction accuracy rate is around 39%.

Did you see that? According to the Canadian Study and the National Climatic Data Center, we've got it exactly backwards. Completely backwards. Taking a contrarian view of the current theorem,

f(GH) = t, where t = duration of winter

,

nets you an astonishing 63% or 61% accuracy. Way better than a coin toss. More powerful than a speeding locomotive. Able to leap tall buildings at a single bound. And over time almost (almost is a relative term) accurate 2 out of 3 years.

The question, given all of this, is why we persist in the current formula. The current equation is clearly incorrect. And so a simple proposal from here into the future. Can we change the equation to this:

f(GH) = -t

I'm not expecting a vast cultural uprising about this, I'm not even expecting anyone to notice. We just keep doing it over and over again.

Happy GH day!

Do These Gardening Horror Stories Justify Killing Animals?

Today's New York Times features "Peter Rabbit Must Die", a compendium of stories of gardeners killing animals which had the unmitigated gall-- can you imagine the nerve?-- to eat their tomatoes and other plants. The bottom line? In the collision between gardeners and wildlife of all kinds, the animals are killed. Nothing, it's claimed, is as effective as clubbing, drowning, shooting. And, of course, most of these folks claim that they don't even feel the slightest twinge of guilt afterwards.

What disgraceful nonsense. Give me a break.

I've been gardening for more than 20 years in Columbia County, New York. Sure the deer have eaten the Swiss Chard and the sunflower sprouts. Of course the ground hogs have eaten the cucumbers. It's sad when that happens. I get angry, too. But let's get a grip. This garden isn't necessary to feed me or the people in the Village of Chatham. It's not the difference between living and dying, between health and starvation, between prosperity and economic ruin. It's a hobby. It's something I enjoy. Yes, I love my lettuce and tomatoes and kale. So, in fact, do the animals. But does this give me authority to get a shot gun and blast them away when they browse the arugula? I don't think so.

These animals were here long before I was. They were here long before my 160 year old farm house. They were eating crops here before Lincoln was president. They were eating spinach and kale when it was grown by Dutch colonists in the 17th century. So at the very most, I can take non-violent steps to discourage them. Urinating on the garden's boundaries sometimes works. Letting the dog out sometimes works. Letting the cats wander sometimes works. Spraying with cayenne works to a degree. Being present works. Weeding works. Leaving your scent in the garden works. If I left for a week or 10 days and didn't weed, the garden would be eaten in broad daylight because it would appear to have been abandoned.

There have always been collisions between humans and wildlife. I believe in non-violence. And peace. And equanimity. I don't want to think while I'm eating my tomatoes of the dozen ground hogs I murdered to get the vegetables on the table. I don't want to pass the lettuce and think about rabbits I garroted. I don't want to eat stuff zucchini and think about how I got a NY State permit to shoot the deer. I can live very nicely without those thoughts.

There's a bird family living in the kitchen vent in the side of my house. I hear the chicks tweeting for food at sunrise. I see the mother and father bird bringing food and nesting materials into the vent. I get off the porch if they are frightened of my being there and won't go to their chicks. I would never reach in and throw them, their nest and their babies out and stomp them.

How can we expect anything as grandiose as world peace when we cannot find a way to coexist with groundhogs? Can't we live and let live?